BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

American Redstart in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 988% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+988%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

American Redstart In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.35–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.35–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.530.320.75
20270.540.330.76
20280.550.330.77
20290.560.340.78
20300.570.350.79

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording American Redstart in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA92025
BeltramiMINNESOTA72025
ErieMINNESOTA72017
MccallsburgIOWA42019
Redwood FallMINNESOTA41993
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA42025
WylieMINNESOTA32023
ClevelandMONTANA32025
ArlingtonMINNESOTA22011
OkleeMINNESOTA22021
BadgerMINNESOTA22018
FairmontMINNESOTA22023
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22025
NashNORTH-DAKOTA22010
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA22025
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA21980
PantherIOWA12025
WashingtonIOWA12024
ScrantonIOWA12017
ClareIOWA12008
CourtlandMINNESOTA12025
MaynardMINNESOTA11985
DawsonMINNESOTA12019
AppletonMINNESOTA11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.