BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

American Redstart in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

11×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.35–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.35–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.530.320.75
20260.540.330.76
20270.550.340.77
20280.560.350.78
20290.570.350.79

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording American Redstart in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA92024
ErieMINNESOTA72017
MccallsburgIOWA42019
Redwood FallMINNESOTA41993
BeltramiMINNESOTA42024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA42024
WylieMINNESOTA32023
ClevelandMONTANA32024
ArlingtonMINNESOTA22011
OkleeMINNESOTA22021
BadgerMINNESOTA22018
FairmontMINNESOTA22023
NashNORTH-DAKOTA22010
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA21980
PantherIOWA12024
WashingtonIOWA12024
ScrantonIOWA12017
ClareIOWA12008
CourtlandMINNESOTA12023
MaynardMINNESOTA11985
DawsonMINNESOTA12019
AppletonMINNESOTA11994
GluekMINNESOTA12013
GlyndonMINNESOTA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.