BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

American Redstart in Northern Rockies has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-45%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

American Redstart In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.000.59
20260.170.000.58
20270.160.000.57
20280.150.000.56
20290.140.000.55

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording American Redstart in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Libby DamMONTANA102024
Fish CreekMONTANA82024
NorthportWASHINGTON62017
Swan LakeMONTANA52024
CusickWASHINGTON42024
Mtn ViewWYOMING41982
CascadeIDAHO31984
Marble CreekIDAHO31990
St MaryMONTANA32002
Red RockMONTANA31982
NinemileMONTANA32024
East Glacier ParkMONTANA32024
Logan PassMONTANA32024
KellerWASHINGTON31998
MammothWYOMING32009
NaplesIDAHO22024
Rochat DivdeIDAHO22023
KalispellMONTANA22019
ArleeMONTANA22024
Painted RockMONTANA22019
Elevation MtMONTANA22024
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA22021
Green RiverWYOMING21982
MivodenIDAHO12018
AveryIDAHO12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.