BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

American Redstart in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-52%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Redstart In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.000.57
20270.160.000.57
20280.150.000.56
20290.140.000.55
20300.140.000.54

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording American Redstart in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish CreekMONTANA82024
NorthportWASHINGTON62017
CoolinIDAHO52025
CusickWASHINGTON52025
Mtn ViewWYOMING41982
CascadeIDAHO31984
Marble CreekIDAHO31990
Libby DamMONTANA32025
St MaryMONTANA32002
Red RockMONTANA31982
NinemileMONTANA32025
East Glacier ParkMONTANA32024
Inside RoadMONTANA32025
Logan PassMONTANA32024
KellerWASHINGTON31998
LaurierWASHINGTON32025
MammothWYOMING32009
NaplesIDAHO22025
KalispellMONTANA22019
ArleeMONTANA22024
WoodmanMONTANA22025
Painted RockMONTANA22019
Swan LakeMONTANA22025
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA22021
BasinWYOMING22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.