BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

American Redstart in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 235% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+235%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 235% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.5–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025118.013
2026118.113
2027118.213
2028118.413
2029118.514

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Redstart in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA602024
Washington IWISCONSIN582024
TahquamenonMICHIGAN382024
MuskallongeMICHIGAN372024
GilchristMICHIGAN372021
BerglandMICHIGAN362022
LockportMINNESOTA362024
PickfordMICHIGAN332024
Hart LakeMINNESOTA322024
OntonagonMICHIGAN302019
Maple GroveMICHIGAN272024
JordanMINNESOTA272023
ShingletonMICHIGAN262024
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN252024
HarriettaMICHIGAN232024
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN232024
HovlandMINNESOTA232024
CohassetMINNESOTA232022
AmbergWISCONSIN232024
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA202023
Pine RiverMINNESOTA202024
NebishMINNESOTA202023
RacoMICHIGAN182024
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN182024
BigforkMINNESOTA182024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.