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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

American Redstart in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 238% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+238%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 238% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 8.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.8–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 8.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026118.213
2027118.413
2028118.514
2029118.614
2030118.814

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Redstart in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA602024
Washington IWISCONSIN532025
MuskallongeMICHIGAN372024
GilchristMICHIGAN372021
BerglandMICHIGAN362022
Maple GroveMICHIGAN332025
LockportMINNESOTA332025
NebishMINNESOTA322025
OntonagonMICHIGAN302019
Hart LakeMINNESOTA302025
PickfordMICHIGAN272025
HovlandMINNESOTA272025
JordanMINNESOTA262025
ShingletonMICHIGAN252025
AmbergWISCONSIN252025
BashawWISCONSIN252025
TahquamenonMICHIGAN232025
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN232024
CohassetMINNESOTA232022
Isabella 2MICHIGAN202025
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN202025
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA202023
DebsMINNESOTA202025
HarriettaMICHIGAN172025
RacoMICHIGAN162025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.