BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

American Redstart in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 351% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+351%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
152Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 351% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.7–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.7–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.32.54.1
20273.42.64.2
20283.42.64.2
20293.52.74.3
20303.52.74.3

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Redstart in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ScottvilleMICHIGAN342025
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA312025
GreshamWISCONSIN222025
CumberlandWISCONSIN202025
Brook ParkMINNESOTA192025
WhitewaterMINNESOTA182000
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN172025
Stevens PtWISCONSIN162023
MillvilleMINNESOTA142025
LoraineWISCONSIN142025
EsdaileWISCONSIN122025
GuilfordILLINOIS112023
St StephenMINNESOTA102025
MerrillWISCONSIN102025
MatherWISCONSIN102023
CohoctahMICHIGAN92025
AshbyMINNESOTA92021
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA92025
HatfieldWISCONSIN91998
GilmantonWISCONSIN82025
ManawaWISCONSIN82025
RochesterMICHIGAN72025
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN72023
CascoWISCONSIN72025
ViroquaWISCONSIN72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.