BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

American Redstart in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 315% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+315%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
152Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 315% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Redstart In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.4 (95% range 2.6–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.4 (95% range 2.6–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.22.43.9
20263.22.54.0
20273.32.54.0
20283.32.64.1
20293.42.64.1

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording American Redstart in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CumberlandWISCONSIN272024
Brook ParkMINNESOTA212024
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA202024
GreshamWISCONSIN202024
WhitewaterMINNESOTA182000
EsdaileWISCONSIN162024
Stevens PtWISCONSIN162023
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN142024
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN122024
GuilfordILLINOIS112023
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA112024
MerrillWISCONSIN112024
ScottvilleMICHIGAN102024
GilmantonWISCONSIN102024
MatherWISCONSIN102023
AshbyMINNESOTA92021
HatfieldWISCONSIN91998
St StephenMINNESOTA82016
N FreedomWISCONSIN82024
No BradleyMICHIGAN72024
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN72023
ViroquaWISCONSIN72024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN72024
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN62012
KnappMINNESOTA62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.