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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

American Redstart in Atlantic Northern Forest has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 1.8–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 1.8–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.92.29.6
20265.82.19.5
20275.72.09.4
20285.61.99.2
20295.51.89.1

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording American Redstart in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK371975
WaiteMAINE341977
LudlowMAINE291998
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS262024
SabattisNEW-YORK261983
WatervilleVERMONT261980
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE232017
MedwayMAINE222018
WashburnMAINE222005
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE212024
CooperMAINE202021
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS202016
Seboomook LkMAINE192014
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS192022
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS192024
Crawford NotNEW-HAMPSHIRE191975
Turner 2MAINE182024
AndoverMAINE182021
MarlboroVERMONT182024
W RutlandVERMONT182024
Horse MtnMAINE172011
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS172024
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE162024
Forest StaMAINE152000
StratfordNEW-HAMPSHIRE152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.