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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

American Redstart in Atlantic Northern Forest has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-24%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

American Redstart In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 1.8–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 1.8–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.92.29.5
20275.82.19.4
20285.62.09.3
20295.51.99.2
20305.41.89.1

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording American Redstart in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK371975
WaiteMAINE341977
LudlowMAINE291998
SabattisNEW-YORK261983
WatervilleVERMONT261980
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE232017
WashburnMAINE222005
CooperMAINE202021
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS202016
Seboomook LkMAINE192014
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS192022
Crawford NotNEW-HAMPSHIRE191975
AndoverMAINE182021
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE182025
Horse MtnMAINE172011
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS162025
Forest StaMAINE152000
Turner 2MAINE152025
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS152025
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK152010
NorthfieldMAINE141981
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE142025
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE142025
GaysvilleVERMONT142025
New HartfordCONNECTICUT131987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.