BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Redstart In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

American Redstart in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+125%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Redstart has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Redstart In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.43–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.85Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.43–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.800.391.2
20260.810.401.2
20270.820.411.2
20280.840.421.3
20290.850.431.3

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording American Redstart in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moskee 2WYOMING192021
Moskee 3WYOMING182024
MoskeeWYOMING112001
SundanceWYOMING72024
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
CircleMONTANA22013
Reed PointMONTANA22024
Miles CityMONTANA22021
CrookstonNEBRASKA22024
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA21971
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA21967
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA22012
HighwoodMONTANA12024
Two DotMONTANA12021
ShawmutMONTANA11992
FlatwillowMONTANA11982
ForsythMONTANA12022
LocateMONTANA12009
St XavierMONTANA11996
BrandenbergMONTANA12014
PowdervilleMONTANA12005
Maynard CouleeMONTANA12018
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA12014
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA12019
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.