BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

American Redstart in Piedmont has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

American Redstart In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Piedmont is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Piedmont is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.180.000.37
20270.180.000.37
20280.180.000.37
20290.180.000.36
20300.170.000.36

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording American Redstart in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AmherstVIRGINIA102025
TrymeVIRGINIA52025
EarltonMARYLAND42024
JoannaSOUTH-CAROLINA42003
Nixburg 2ALABAMA32025
Yates CrossroadsGEORGIA32005
PottstownPENNSYLVANIA31974
SchwenksvillPENNSYLVANIA32001
ElamsvilleVIRGINIA32014
Liberty CityALABAMA22009
LincolntonGEORGIA22015
BaldwinGEORGIA22010
Carrs StationGEORGIA22023
HebronGEORGIA22005
Silver SpgMARYLAND21977
TheodoreMARYLAND22008
CrotonNEW-JERSEY22007
CopelandNORTH-CAROLINA21980
MonticelloNORTH-CAROLINA22008
Plum BranchSOUTH-CAROLINA22023
ProsperitySOUTH-CAROLINA22005
TaylorstownVIRGINIA21985
PartlowVIRGINIA22007
ShipmanVIRGINIA22025
HallVIRGINIA21972

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.