BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Redstart In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

American Redstart in Great Basin has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-9%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Redstart in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

American Redstart In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Great Basin is projected to fall about 74% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Redstart in Great Basin is projected to fall about 74% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.000.06
20270.010.000.06
20280.010.000.06
20290.010.000.06
20300.010.000.06

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording American Redstart in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON42025
MazamaWASHINGTON32000
NewhalemWASHINGTON22025
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON21995
PendletonOREGON12001
TwispWASHINGTON11991
ReardanWASHINGTON11989
WinthropWASHINGTON11985
White ChuckWASHINGTON12025
NighthawkWASHINGTON11999
WaitsburgWASHINGTON12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.