BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Analysis

CardinalidaeForest birdsPiranga olivacea

Scarlet Tanager has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,719RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Scarlet Tanager

The Scarlet Tanager (Piranga olivacea) is a North American member of the Cardinals & Grosbeaks (Cardinalidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–8.5 in long (12–22 cm) — a medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 1,719 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 33 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Cardinalidae · Forest birds

Notable Scarlet Tanager TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 1.0–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 1.0–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.41.01.7
20271.41.01.7
20281.41.01.7
20291.31.01.7
20301.31.01.7

Where the Scarlet Tanager Is Detected

BBS routes recording Scarlet Tanager, sized by most recent count.

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend by State

Scarlet Tanager population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+228%196849
Arkansas+103%196934
Connecticut-20%196820
Delaware-31%196817
Georgia+615%197445
Illinois+120%196888
Indiana+113%196860
Iowa-17%197621
Kansas-50%19779
Kentucky+15%196862
Maine-31%196875
Maryland+41%196876
Massachusetts+12%196832
Michigan+96%1968105
Minnesota-6%196976
Mississippi+26%197717
Missouri+602%197074
Nebraska+16%19898
New Hampshire-10%196825
New Jersey+113%196842
New York-31%1968126
North Carolina+98%196978
North Dakotainsufficient datan/a3
Ohio+260%196883
Oklahoma+182%196914
Pennsylvania+67%1968134
Rhode Island-36%19686
South Carolina+209%197217
Tennessee+213%196851
Vermont-37%196826
Virginia+70%196885
West Virginia+49%196864
Wisconsin-18%196897

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Scarlet Tanager population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes-58%197323
Boreal Hardwood Transition-27%1968127
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-1%196884
Atlantic Northern Forest-33%1968152
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+90%1968198
Prairie Hardwood Transition+8%1968154
Central Hardwoods+123%1968151
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+237%196927
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-44%197211
Southeastern Coastal Plain+104%196873
Appalachian Mountains+95%1968403
Piedmont+17%1968150
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-37%1968161

Scarlet Tanager Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 21% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.