BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Minnesota has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.70 (95% range 0.32–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.70 (95% range 0.32–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.700.321.1
20260.700.321.1
20270.700.321.1
20280.700.321.1
20290.700.321.1

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cass Lake420161980
Bemidji419801979
Debs420241969
Ashby420211997
Chatfield 2420242006
Sherburne Nr320241990
Evergreen320241967
Hovland320041978
Bena319771977
Brook Park320241998
Tamarac Nwr220241991
Millville220191970
Minnetonka220141969
Whitewater220001995
Nebish220231982
Knapp220241967
Wigwam Bay220231968
Sherry Lake219881970
Wylie219801980
Caledonia220121993
Frontenac220232008
Blackduck220222004
Glendale220241993
Whitewater 2220112011
Money Creek120181972

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.