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Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Alabama has surged: up 228% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+228%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Alabama: up 228% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Alabama is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.92 (95% range 0.56–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.92Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Alabama is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.92 (95% range 0.56–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.870.521.2
20270.880.531.2
20280.890.541.2
20290.910.551.3
20300.920.561.3

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Youngtown920251993
Borden Springs 2720242001
Liberty City 2620242019
Borden Sprng519981994
Sunny Eve320251966
Rock Chapel319971997
Oneonta320252004
Dawson219971971
Greensport220251970
Maytown220251981
Whitehouse220241987
Mentone220231993
Holt220251994
Odenville220131996
Elkmont220251997
Carter Grove220192019
Stevenson220182018
Talladega220251996
Brooksville220251984
Choccolocco220241985
St Florian120171967
Hillsboro119871975
Trade120231969
Summitt119691969
Valhermoso Spgs119821974

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.