BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Alabama has surged: up 220% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+220%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Alabama: up 220% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Alabama is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.58–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.93Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Alabama is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.58–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.880.531.2
20260.890.541.2
20270.900.551.3
20280.910.571.3
20290.930.581.3

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Borden Springs 2720242001
Liberty City 2620242019
Sunny Eve520241966
Borden Sprng519981994
Greensport420241970
Youngtown420241993
Oneonta420232004
Holt320221994
Rock Chapel319971997
Swaim220241969
Dawson219971971
Whitehouse220241987
Mentone220231993
Odenville220131996
Elkmont220231997
Carter Grove220192019
Stevenson220182018
Choccolocco220241985
St Florian120171967
Hillsboro119871975
Trade120231969
Summitt119691969
Valhermoso Spgs119821974
Pine Grove120211990
Millerville120241971

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.