BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in West Virginia has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in West Virginia is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 7.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in West Virginia is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 7.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026106.713
2027106.813
2028106.913
2029106.913
2030107.014

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sleepy Creek2619901966
Shanghai2620251995
Pedro1820251979
Fayetteville1719961980
Denmar1520251980
Smoot1420251980
Glade Run1420021988
Albright1319741966
Meadowville1320251972
Strange Crk1220251982
Mo Of Seneca1220251969
Rio1219951974
Ruthbelle1220251975
Glady1220252001
Hix1120251970
Canaan1020251974
Sugar Grove1020251966
Bowden1020251993
Three Forks920251971
Lost River920251996
Stollings820211986
Arlee819791966
Dailey820251973
Washburn820221974
Josephs Mill820241993

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.