BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in West Virginia has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in West Virginia is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 6.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.2–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in West Virginia is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 6.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025106.913
2026107.013
2027107.114
2028107.114
2029107.214

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sleepy Creek2619901966
Fayetteville1719961980
Ghent1620241978
Hix1520241970
Glade Run1420021988
Bowden1420241993
Shanghai1420221995
Albright1319741966
Rio1219951974
Glady1220242001
Clear Creek1120241988
Denmar1120241980
Smithfield1120241993
Smoot1020241980
Canaan1020241974
Three Forks1020241971
Strange Crk1020241982
Meadowville1020241972
Ruthbelle920241975
Bismark920231976
Stollings820211986
Arlee819791966
Richwood820241980
Washburn820221974
Josephs Mill820241993

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.