BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in New Hampshire has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in New Hampshire. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in New Hampshire is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.7 (95% range 0.96–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.96–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in New Hampshire is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.7 (95% range 0.96–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.14.6
20272.81.14.6
20282.81.04.6
20292.80.994.5
20302.70.964.5

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hopkinton1020251966
Canterbury820251967
Walpole820251966
Glen820251975
Brentwood719981966
Fitzwilliam620251966
East Kingston520241999
Mt Chocorua420251966
Epsom320241966
Wilmot320251966
Peterborough220251966
Concord220251966
Strafford220251966
Marlow220251966
Jefferson Hl220251967
Franconia220251966
Milan220081966
Dover120251966
Gilmantn I W120251969
Lempster120231967
Crawford Not119751966
Stratford120221966
Dixvil Notch119971967
Clarksville120001969
Jeffers Ntch120231993

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.