BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in New Hampshire has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in New Hampshire. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.0–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.0–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.14.7
20262.91.14.7
20272.91.14.6
20282.81.04.6
20292.81.04.6

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Peterborough720241966
Brentwood719981966
Strafford720241966
Canterbury720241967
Walpole720241966
Marlow720241966
Glen720241975
Fitzwilliam520241966
Hopkinton520241966
East Kingston520241999
Concord420241966
Dover320241966
Epsom320231966
Gilmantn I W320241969
Wilmot320241966
Jefferson Hl320241967
Mt Chocorua220241966
Milan220081966
Lempster120231967
Crawford Not119751966
Franconia120241966
Stratford120221966
Dixvil Notch119971967
Clarksville120001969
Jeffers Ntch120231993

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.