BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Mississippi has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+12%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Mississippi. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Mississippi is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Mississippi is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.18
20260.080.000.18
20270.080.000.18
20280.080.000.18
20290.080.000.18

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace Lee320182013
Corinth319961977
Isola219681968
Trace Chickasaw220242019
Tupelo220131979
Scooba 2219861986
Weir120232023
Holly Springs120242018
Fayette119781978
Olive Branch120002000
Trace North120182011
Walthall119871987
Duck Hill119951995
Embry119961992
Cybur119851985
Scooba119821970
Aberdeen120162016

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.