BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in South Carolina has surged: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+102%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in South Carolina: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in South Carolina is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±166.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±166.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in South Carolina is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±166.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.35
20260.150.000.35
20270.150.000.35
20280.150.000.35
20290.150.000.35

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Landrum319871980
Salem Xrd219861986
Plum Branch220172001
Owings 2220152015
Battlecreek220241999
Salem220242016
Jamestown119751975
Coward119971997
New Holland119721967
Cauthens Xrd120021998
Barton Creek120171984
Boiling Spgs119711971
Blacksburg120122012
Greenwood120182004
Anderson120032003
Whitmire120242022
Ridgeway120192019

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.