Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Tennessee
Scarlet Tanager in Tennessee has surged: up 256% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
+256%Since 1968
51Routes In State
58Years
Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in Tennessee
long arc increasecomputed index
Scarlet Tanager has surged in Tennessee: up 255% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Tennessee
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Tennessee is projected to rise about 111% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 3.7–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+111%Change by 2029
5.3Projected 2029 index
3.7–6.895% range
±72.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 6.6 |
| 2026 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 6.6 |
| 2027 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 6.7 |
| 2028 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 6.8 |
| 2029 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 6.8 |
Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Tennessee
| Mecca | 26 | 2023 | 1994 |
| Trace Lewis | 22 | 2017 | 2013 |
| Mcfarland | 15 | 1993 | 1967 |
| Harbuck | 11 | 2023 | 1994 |
| Fish Springs | 11 | 2023 | 1966 |
| Big Sandy | 10 | 2024 | 1966 |
| Elk Valley | 9 | 2022 | 1970 |
| Oliver Spgs | 9 | 2022 | 1966 |
| Newfound Gap | 9 | 2024 | 1990 |
| Trace Collinwood | 9 | 2018 | 2015 |
| Willis Sprng | 8 | 2023 | 1994 |
| Pond Creek | 7 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Jasper | 7 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Campbellsville | 6 | 2017 | 1966 |
| Mansfield | 5 | 2024 | 1966 |
| Indian Mound 2 | 5 | 2018 | 2005 |
| Cornpone | 4 | 2024 | 1990 |
| Indian Mound | 4 | 1998 | 1970 |
| Smokey Jct | 4 | 2022 | 1966 |
| Wrigley | 3 | 2022 | 1967 |
| Belotes Bend | 3 | 2018 | 1978 |
| Tullahoma | 3 | 2015 | 1967 |
| Cades Cove | 3 | 2024 | 1989 |
| Tiptonville | 2 | 2016 | 1986 |
| Moscow | 2 | 2022 | 1969 |
Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.