BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Tennessee has surged: up 256% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+256%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Tennessee: up 255% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Tennessee is projected to rise about 111% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 3.7–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+111%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Tennessee is projected to rise about 111% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 3.7–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.03.56.6
20265.13.56.6
20275.23.66.7
20285.23.76.8
20295.33.76.8

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mecca2620231994
Trace Lewis2220172013
Mcfarland1519931967
Harbuck1120231994
Fish Springs1120231966
Big Sandy1020241966
Elk Valley920221970
Oliver Spgs920221966
Newfound Gap920241990
Trace Collinwood920182015
Willis Sprng820231994
Pond Creek720241967
Jasper720241967
Campbellsville620171966
Mansfield520241966
Indian Mound 2520182005
Cornpone420241990
Indian Mound419981970
Smokey Jct420221966
Wrigley320221967
Belotes Bend320181978
Tullahoma320151967
Cades Cove320241989
Tiptonville220161986
Moscow220221969

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.