BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Maine has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-28%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Maine. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Maine is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.88Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Maine is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.940.002.3
20260.930.002.2
20270.910.002.2
20280.900.002.2
20290.880.002.2

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Northfield819811977
Cambridge620081971
Benedicta419801976
Grnd Lk Strm419921990
Otisfield Gr320151977
Hartford320241975
Seboomook Lk320031978
Washburn320051979
Turner 2320242011
Cape Neddick220231972
Biddeford220191973
Bethel220181977
Turner220101972
Bowdoin Ctr220131971
Manchester219951971
Warren219901973
Benton219791979
Brooks220191979
Eastbrook220231973
Charleston220191977
Baxter219841977
Hudson220091974
Waite219771977
Pillsbury Pd219681968
St David219851982

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.