BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in New York has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in New York. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in New York is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.84–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in New York is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.84–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.963.0
20272.00.933.0
20281.90.903.0
20291.90.872.9
20301.90.842.9

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oxford1619761967
W Shokan1420191968
Westbrookvle1220191966
Downsville1120191982
Orange Lake1119921987
Mcdonough920171967
Branchport920241968
Cooperstown819771970
North Easton820251967
S Berne 2820252014
Rifton719861968
N Wilmurt719981967
Meridale620251967
Degrasse620251980
S Vandalia620161966
Horseshoe L.620171992
Cobleskill520231966
Corbettsvile520251966
Trumansburg520241966
Canadice L520251968
Salem520251967
Tupper Lake519761968
Naples520251966
Philadelphia520251980
S Berne420131967

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.