BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in New York has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in New York. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in New York is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.85–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.85–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in New York is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.85–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.973.0
20262.00.943.0
20271.90.913.0
20281.90.882.9
20291.90.852.9

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oxford1619761967
W Shokan1420191968
S Berne 21320242014
Westbrookvle1220191966
Downsville1120191982
Orange Lake1119921987
Mcdonough920171967
Branchport920241968
Cooperstown819771970
Corbettsvile820241966
Rifton719861968
N Wilmurt719981967
Oneonta620241968
S Vandalia620161966
Horseshoe L.620171992
Cobleskill520231966
E Newark520241967
Trumansburg520241966
North River520071966
Tupper Lake519761968
Meridale420241967
S Berne420131967
Nashville420181967
Blue Ridge S420101969
Salem420241967

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.