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Species · Connecticut · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Connecticut has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Connecticut. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Connecticut is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.2–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Connecticut is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.2–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.11.37.0
20274.11.27.0
20284.11.27.0
20294.11.26.9
20304.01.26.9

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren1420111972
Uncasville1320251973
Mid Haddam820251974
Warren 2720252012
New Hartford619871972
Woodstock 2620252016
Willimantic520181967
Danbury520221968
Granby520251988
Sherman420191973
Greenwich420151967
Buckingham320101966
Woodstock220071968
No Woodbury220251967
Mystic120191973
E Hartland119921966
Westbrook120241969
Long Hill120191972
Southington120251973
New Hartford120241994

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.