BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Connecticut has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Connecticut. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Connecticut is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.0 (95% range 1.1–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Connecticut is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.0 (95% range 1.1–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.11.27.0
20264.11.26.9
20274.01.16.9
20284.01.16.9
20294.01.16.9

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren1420111972
Granby1220241988
Uncasville920241973
New Hartford619871972
Willimantic520181967
Danbury520221968
Mid Haddam520241974
Warren 2520242012
Sherman420191973
Greenwich420151967
Woodstock 2420242016
Buckingham320101966
Woodstock220071968
Southington220241973
Mystic120191973
E Hartland119921966
Westbrook120241969
No Woodbury120231967
Long Hill120191972
New Hartford120241994

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.