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Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Wisconsin has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.6 (95% range 0.74–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.74–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.6 (95% range 0.74–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.802.6
20271.70.792.5
20281.60.772.5
20291.60.762.5
20301.60.742.5

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Union Twp2620251966
Bashaw1720251998
Hatfield1419981970
Popple River920251966
Stevens Pt920231971
Mather720181966
Land O Lakes520131967
Casco520221971
Mellen520252002
Conover520251998
Cavour520241998
Hollister420251967
Wis Rapids420221970
Newburg Crns420251966
Minong320251967
Land O' Lakes 2320252017
Weirgor Springs320251999
Buena Vista320242000
Chaffey220251967
Shanagolden220251969
Hudson220181966
Exeland220221968
Merrill220241966
Irma220251967
Mcnaughton220241966

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.