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Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Wisconsin has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.76–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.76–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.76–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.822.6
20261.70.812.6
20271.70.792.6
20281.70.782.5
20291.60.762.5

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Union Twp2620241966
Hatfield1419981970
Stevens Pt920231971
Mather720181966
Land O Lakes520131967
Casco520221971
Cavour520241998
Gresham520241998
Shanagolden420221969
Hollister420231967
Washington I420241967
Cadott420241966
Wis Rapids420221970
Saxeville420241971
Land O' Lakes 2420222017
Popple River320241966
Amberg320241980
Wausaukee320241980
Gilmanton320241967
Trempealeau320241966
Paris320231966
Pigeon Creek320241999
Mellen320242002
Flambeau320242000
River Falls320161998

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.