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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Michigan has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Michigan: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Michigan is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.1–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Michigan is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.1–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.61.04.1
20272.61.14.1
20282.61.14.1
20292.61.14.2
20302.61.14.2

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barry S.G.A.1220121995
Monterey1120251978
Scottville1020251971
Big Rapids1019901968
Harrietta920251990
Bear Lake820251967
Sand Lake720251978
Allegan Wma620191993
Herman520221983
Cunard520211973
Brush Creek520161974
Fowlerville520081974
Cedar Run519991999
Sidnaw520251993
Scott'S Marsh520102006
Pleasant Val419971967
Irons419891970
Beaver Lake420111974
Cohoctah420252021
Walloon Lake 2420242005
Almena420151993
Barry S.G.A. 2420192013
Brocky Lake320251980
Creighton320251978
Big Blue Lk320251979

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.