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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Michigan has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Michigan: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Michigan is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.1–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Michigan is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.1–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.04.1
20262.61.14.2
20272.61.14.2
20282.61.14.2
20292.61.14.2

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barry S.G.A.1220121995
Big Rapids1019901968
Sand Lake920241978
Allegan Wma620191993
Herman520221983
Cunard520211973
Bear Lake520241967
Scottville520241971
Brush Creek520161974
Fowlerville520081974
Cedar Run519991999
Scott'S Marsh520102006
Big Blue Lk420241979
Pleasant Val419971967
Irons419891970
Raco420241971
Beaver Lake420111974
Harrietta420241990
Walloon Lake 2420242005
Hiawatha Nf420241992
Sidnaw420241993
Almena420151993
Barry S.G.A. 2420192013
Bravo320231974
Howardsville320241971

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.