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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Arkansas has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+103%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Arkansas: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Arkansas is projected to rise about 97% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.4–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+97%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Arkansas is projected to rise about 97% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.4–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.61.33.9
20272.61.33.9
20282.71.44.0
20292.71.44.0
20302.71.44.0

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Waldron1220251972
Boston Mtn.1120251994
Lurton920231967
Ozark Nf720251991
Marshall720212011
Compton620221967
Rupert320241967
Sims320252010
Hughes219731973
Crows219861980
Blakely219951969
Dry Fork 2220252025
Old Milo120021994
Ramsey119771968
Locust Bayou120001994
Magazine Mtn120251993
Crowley'S Ridge120252025
Poyen119861982
Hollywood120031971
Harrisburg119681968
Hatfield 2120252017
Augusta119721970
Stark120011967
Coal Hill119991982
Massard119971992

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.