Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Arkansas
Scarlet Tanager in Arkansas has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
+98%Since 1969
32Routes In State
57Years
Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in Arkansas
long arc increasecomputed index
Scarlet Tanager has surged in Arkansas: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Arkansas
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Arkansas is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.5–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+57%Change by 2029
2.8Projected 2029 index
1.5–4.195% range
±62%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 3.9 |
| 2026 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 4.0 |
| 2027 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 4.0 |
| 2028 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 4.0 |
| 2029 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 4.1 |
Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Arkansas
| Magazine Mtn | 21 | 2021 | 1993 |
| Waldron | 19 | 2024 | 1972 |
| Boston Mtn. | 9 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Lurton | 9 | 2023 | 1967 |
| Marshall | 7 | 2021 | 2011 |
| Compton | 6 | 2022 | 1967 |
| Sims | 5 | 2024 | 2010 |
| Rudy | 5 | 2024 | 2011 |
| Ozark Nf | 4 | 2024 | 1991 |
| Hatfield 2 | 4 | 2024 | 2017 |
| Rupert | 3 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Hughes | 2 | 1973 | 1973 |
| Crows | 2 | 1986 | 1980 |
| Blakely | 2 | 1995 | 1969 |
| Old Milo | 1 | 2002 | 1994 |
| Ramsey | 1 | 1977 | 1968 |
| Locust Bayou | 1 | 2000 | 1994 |
| Poyen | 1 | 1986 | 1982 |
| Hollywood | 1 | 2003 | 1971 |
| Harrisburg | 1 | 1968 | 1968 |
| Augusta | 1 | 1972 | 1970 |
| Stark | 1 | 2001 | 1967 |
| Coal Hill | 1 | 1999 | 1982 |
| Massard | 1 | 1997 | 1992 |
| Zion | 1 | 2024 | 1970 |
Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.