BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Arkansas has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+98%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Arkansas: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Arkansas is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.5–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Arkansas is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.5–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.71.43.9
20262.71.44.0
20272.71.54.0
20282.81.54.0
20292.81.54.1

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magazine Mtn2120211993
Waldron1920241972
Boston Mtn.920241994
Lurton920231967
Marshall720212011
Compton620221967
Sims520242010
Rudy520242011
Ozark Nf420241991
Hatfield 2420242017
Rupert320241967
Hughes219731973
Crows219861980
Blakely219951969
Old Milo120021994
Ramsey119771968
Locust Bayou120001994
Poyen119861982
Hollywood120031971
Harrisburg119681968
Augusta119721970
Stark120011967
Coal Hill119991982
Massard119971992
Zion120241970

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.