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Species · Georgia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Georgia

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Georgia has surged: up 615% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+615%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Georgia: up 615% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Georgia is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.33–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–0.9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Georgia is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.33–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.630.300.95
20270.640.310.96
20280.640.320.97
20290.650.320.97
20300.650.330.98

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Siloam1119781978
Baxter1120221975
Pleasant Hill820252005
Ball Ground420252021
Maxeys420242010
Whitesburg420251992
Mountain Cty320251975
Piedmont Nwr220031991
Hiram220181976
Stoney Point 2220242022
Philema220182018
Sharon220222018
Good Hope220232023
Sunny Side220192009
Hebron220062006
Amos Mill220222011
Everett City119761976
Courthouse120232022
Lyons119721972
Forsyth119741974
Crest120172009
Hollonville120021989
Fairplay119881988
Athens120231981
Oakman120241987

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawareillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.