BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Missouri has surged: up 585% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+585%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Missouri: up 585% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Missouri is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.91–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.91–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Missouri is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.91–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.812.2
20261.50.832.2
20271.50.862.2
20281.60.882.2
20291.60.912.3

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Centerville1720241994
Bennett1120241996
Williamsvill720241994
Akers620241970
Clementine619961992
Cascade520241973
Ironton519801974
Hayden520241978
Graniteville520241982
Syracuse420241969
Huntsville320241979
Barks320241994
New Point320072007
Pulaski220231982
Wesco220241978
Filley219821976
Centertown220221991
Kahoka219861980
Sticklervill220161976
Tarkio219791978
Hilda220241995
Marshfield220222012
Bland220191995
Richland220212014
Viburnum220242014

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.