BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Indiana has surged: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+113%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Indiana: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Indiana is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.52–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Indiana is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.52–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.483.5
20272.00.493.5
20282.00.503.5
20292.00.513.5
20302.00.523.5

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hoosier1620251990
Georgia1120251999
Indian Spgs520251983
New Phila420251982
Knox320251989
Packertown320041967
Belmont320241981
Brookville320251967
Celestine320251979
Wallace320242000
South Bend219831966
Middletown220021978
Pimento220221985
Friendswood220241988
Azalia220251982
Shelbyville220251999
Cumback220191966
Millersburg220121982
Clear Spring220251981
Corydon220251966
Vevay220251966
Evansville220081974
Witts Station220252001
Portage 2220252005
Packertown 2220252005

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.