BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in North Carolina has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+96%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in North Carolina: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.8 (95% range 0.81–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.81–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.8 (95% range 0.81–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.792.8
20261.80.802.8
20271.80.802.8
20281.80.812.8
20291.80.812.8

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oteen1320241976
Highlands1220241994
Andrews1219981994
N. Mills Riv1019951994
Cullowhee920241974
Sturgills920242002
Waterville920241994
Table Rock920221994
Kyle920241994
Fontana820241968
Eden820221993
Mooresville720011989
Brevard720241968
Climax620081966
Copeland520241969
Call520231968
Mount Airy520242000
French Broad River520242001
Cherokee520242011
California 2420242014
Marshall420241990
Murphy420241996
Todd420231995
Busick419961994
Speed320221986

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.