Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in North Carolina
Scarlet Tanager in North Carolina has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
+96%Since 1969
78Routes In State
57Years
Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in North Carolina
long arc increasecomputed index
Scarlet Tanager has surged in North Carolina: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in North Carolina
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.8 (95% range 0.81–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+1%Change by 2029
1.8Projected 2029 index
0.81–2.895% range
±22.4%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.8 | 0.79 | 2.8 |
| 2026 | 1.8 | 0.80 | 2.8 |
| 2027 | 1.8 | 0.80 | 2.8 |
| 2028 | 1.8 | 0.81 | 2.8 |
| 2029 | 1.8 | 0.81 | 2.8 |
Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in North Carolina
| Oteen | 13 | 2024 | 1976 |
| Highlands | 12 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Andrews | 12 | 1998 | 1994 |
| N. Mills Riv | 10 | 1995 | 1994 |
| Cullowhee | 9 | 2024 | 1974 |
| Sturgills | 9 | 2024 | 2002 |
| Waterville | 9 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Table Rock | 9 | 2022 | 1994 |
| Kyle | 9 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Fontana | 8 | 2024 | 1968 |
| Eden | 8 | 2022 | 1993 |
| Mooresville | 7 | 2001 | 1989 |
| Brevard | 7 | 2024 | 1968 |
| Climax | 6 | 2008 | 1966 |
| Copeland | 5 | 2024 | 1969 |
| Call | 5 | 2023 | 1968 |
| Mount Airy | 5 | 2024 | 2000 |
| French Broad River | 5 | 2024 | 2001 |
| Cherokee | 5 | 2024 | 2011 |
| California 2 | 4 | 2024 | 2014 |
| Marshall | 4 | 2024 | 1990 |
| Murphy | 4 | 2024 | 1996 |
| Todd | 4 | 2023 | 1995 |
| Busick | 4 | 1996 | 1994 |
| Speed | 3 | 2022 | 1986 |
Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.