BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in North Carolina has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+98%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in North Carolina: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in North Carolina is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.81–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.81–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in North Carolina is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.81–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.802.8
20271.80.802.8
20281.80.812.8
20291.80.812.8
20301.80.812.8

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bullock1420251997
Oteen1320241976
Andrews1219981994
N. Mills Riv1019951994
Table Rock920221994
Kyle920241994
Eden820221993
Mooresville720011989
Fontana720251968
Cullowhee720251974
Highlands720251994
Climax620081966
Linville620251976
Sawmill620251990
Waterville620251994
Brevard520251968
Todd520241995
Mount Airy520252000
Cherokee520252011
Murphy420241996
Busick419961994
Speed320221986
Arcola320241971
Call320251968
Cypress Cr320041996

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.