BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Vermont has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Vermont is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Vermont is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.003.0
20271.40.002.9
20281.30.002.9
20291.30.002.8
20301.20.002.8

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shaftsbury820251966
W Rutland620251966
Waterville619801967
Marlboro520251966
Gaysville520251966
Post Mills420241966
S Wallingfrd420221966
North Pownal320251966
Landgrove320251966
S Reading320241966
Middlesex320251968
Hardwick320241966
Bristol320251996
St Johnsbury220251970
East Haven220251966
East Calais220251966
Greensboro220241967
Fletcher220241968
Hinesburg219941966
Newbury 2220222005
Stowe220241988
Stratton120251966
Northfld Fls120251980
Newbury120041986
Colchester120191986

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.