BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Vermont has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Vermont is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Vermont is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.002.9
20261.30.002.9
20271.30.002.8
20281.20.002.8
20291.20.002.7

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marlboro1220241966
Shaftsbury820241966
Waterville619801967
Stratton520241966
Post Mills420241966
S Wallingfrd420221966
Middlesex420241968
S Reading320241966
W Rutland320241966
East Haven320241966
Hardwick320241966
Greensboro220241967
Fletcher220241968
Hinesburg219941966
Newbury 2220222005
Stowe220241988
North Pownal120221966
Landgrove120241966
Gaysville120211966
St Johnsbury120231970
Northfld Fls120211980
East Calais120241966
Newbury120041986
Colchester120191986
Grand Isle120161969

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.