BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in New Jersey has surged: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+113%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in New Jersey: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in New Jersey is projected to rise about 73% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.1–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in New Jersey is projected to rise about 73% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.1–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.03.9
20272.51.03.9
20282.51.03.9
20292.51.13.9
20302.51.13.9

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
High Point1220251977
Hope1019941974
Kemah Lake520241968
Dover520231977
Pedricktown520111991
Pedricktown 2420252013
Ramseysburg420251995
Del Haven319911991
Ancora219771966
Gillette220211990
Keyport220211990
Cranbury219881987
Spraguetown219971977
Mt Misery219891988
Bennett Mill 2220212016
Woodbury Hgt120251967
Greenwich120241966
Six Points120221978
Deepwater119771976
Toms River120082008
Albion120221968
Masonville119671967
Bennett Mill120001966
Sandbrook120251969
Holmansville120091969

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.