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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Virginia has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has risen sharply in Virginia: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Virginia is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 6.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 6.1–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Virginia is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 6.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 6.1–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.95.810
20278.05.910
20288.15.910
20298.26.010
20308.26.110

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shenandoa Np3120251993
Glenwood2920231992
Pw Forest Pk2420091992
New Market2220251992
Bald Knob1920251992
Covington1820251966
Mountain Lk.1820181992
Loft Mtn1720231993
Front Royal1720251993
Gr North Mtn1520251993
W Augusta1220251967
Potts Mtn.1120131992
Big Meadows1120251993
Pine Mtn.1020251996
Jerome920251971
Isom920241969
Putnam920251969
Lake Anna920252021
Quinby820181966
Clinchport819781967
Ft Pickett N819951993
Ft Pickett S819951993
Waverly719871978
Saltville720251970
Elamsville720161978

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.