BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Virginia has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Virginia: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Virginia is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 6.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 6.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Virginia is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 6.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 6.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.05.910
20268.16.010
20278.26.110
20288.26.110
20298.36.210

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glenwood2920231992
Bald Knob2420241992
Shenandoa Np2420241993
Pw Forest Pk2420091992
Front Royal2320241993
Jerome1920231971
Covington1820241966
Mountain Lk.1820181992
Gr North Mtn1720241993
Loft Mtn1720231993
Edinburg1620241968
Saltville1520241970
Lake Anna1420242021
New Market1420241992
W Augusta1220241967
Potts Mtn.1120131992
Big Meadows1120241993
Isom920241969
Irisburg920241978
Pine Mtn.920241996
Stanley820241966
Big Island820241968
Shipman820241969
Church Road820241966
Quinby820181966

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.