Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Virginia
Scarlet Tanager in Virginia has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
+78%Since 1968
85Routes In State
58Years
Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in Virginia
long arc increasecomputed index
Scarlet Tanager has surged in Virginia: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Virginia
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Virginia is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 6.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 6.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+28%Change by 2029
8.3Projected 2029 index
6.2–1095% range
±18.2%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 10 |
| 2026 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 10 |
| 2027 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 10 |
| 2028 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 10 |
| 2029 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 10 |
Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Virginia
| Glenwood | 29 | 2023 | 1992 |
| Bald Knob | 24 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Shenandoa Np | 24 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Pw Forest Pk | 24 | 2009 | 1992 |
| Front Royal | 23 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Jerome | 19 | 2023 | 1971 |
| Covington | 18 | 2024 | 1966 |
| Mountain Lk. | 18 | 2018 | 1992 |
| Gr North Mtn | 17 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Loft Mtn | 17 | 2023 | 1993 |
| Edinburg | 16 | 2024 | 1968 |
| Saltville | 15 | 2024 | 1970 |
| Lake Anna | 14 | 2024 | 2021 |
| New Market | 14 | 2024 | 1992 |
| W Augusta | 12 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Potts Mtn. | 11 | 2013 | 1992 |
| Big Meadows | 11 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Isom | 9 | 2024 | 1969 |
| Irisburg | 9 | 2024 | 1978 |
| Pine Mtn. | 9 | 2024 | 1996 |
| Stanley | 8 | 2024 | 1966 |
| Big Island | 8 | 2024 | 1968 |
| Shipman | 8 | 2024 | 1969 |
| Church Road | 8 | 2024 | 1966 |
| Quinby | 8 | 2018 | 1966 |
Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.