BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Kentucky has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Kentucky is projected to rise about 233% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.1–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±167.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+233%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±167.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Kentucky is projected to rise about 233% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.1–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±167.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.50.936.0
20273.50.976.1
20283.61.06.1
20293.61.06.2
20303.61.16.2

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mammoth Cave2520141995
Cumberlnd Gp2420181966
Pippa Passes1619971988
Carter1420251976
Beattyville 21320242006
Phelps1219971979
Kehoe1019921967
Mammoth Cave North1020132009
Levee 2920192007
Brownsville820242022
Demunbruns720211966
Paintsville619951979
Monticello520221968
Levee519821966
Gesling519731972
Staffordsvil519971996
Porter420251968
Sunnybrook320211968
Hodgenville320011969
Kehoe 2320242005
Drakesboro320031987
Hodgenville 2320232008
Shiloh220251968
Canton220241972
Iron Bridge219881978

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.