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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Ohio has surged: up 260% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+260%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Ohio: up 259% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Ohio is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.5–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Ohio is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.5–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.53.37.7
20275.53.37.8
20285.63.47.8
20295.73.57.9
20305.73.58.0

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar Hollow3220241992
Stonecreek2020251996
Wayne N.F.1820251992
Scioto Trail1820131992
Shawnee S.F. 21820192001
Rome1320251967
Mohican S.F.1220251992
Dresden1120251966
Smithfield1020251967
Coal Run1019921966
Birmingham1020241988
Shawnee S.F.1020001992
South Olive920251993
Zaleski S.F.920251992
Baxter Ridge820251998
Newcomerstwn819951966
Omega820241966
Coshocton819911990
Tick Ridge820191993
Pike S.F.720131992
Bolins Mills620251966
Keene620231992
Ray520251992
Marion 2520252025
Garrettsvile419911973

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.