BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Ohio has surged: up 254% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+254%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Ohio: up 254% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Ohio is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.6–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Ohio is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.6–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.53.37.7
20265.63.47.8
20275.63.47.8
20285.73.57.9
20295.83.68.0

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar Hollow3220241992
Dresden2020241966
Scioto Trail1820131992
Shawnee S.F. 21820192001
Wayne N.F.1620241992
Stonecreek1420241996
Mohican S.F.1320241992
Coal Run1019921966
Rome1020241967
Birmingham1020241988
Shawnee S.F.1020001992
Newcomerstwn819951966
Omega820241966
Coshocton819911990
Tick Ridge820191993
Smithfield720241967
Pike S.F.720131992
Lucerne620241992
Bolins Mills620241966
Keene620231992
Zaleski S.F.620241992
Garrettsvile419911973
Harveysburg419951966
Hiram420191992
Peru319751971

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.