BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Oklahoma has surged: up 182% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+182%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Oklahoma: up 182% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 305% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.53–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+305%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±142.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 305% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.53–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.990.481.5
20271.00.491.5
20281.00.511.5
20291.00.521.6
20301.10.531.6

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blanco619681968
Ouachita Nf620251991
Hee Mountain620241999
Pushmataha220231994
Big Cedar120241967
Phillips119981970
Heyburn119981994
Mt. Herman120221998
Baron119841973
Bethel120251993
Peoria119781967
Welch120092009
Douglas120042004
Colcord120152006

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.