BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Oklahoma has surged: up 214% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+214%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Oklahoma: up 214% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.61–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.61–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.551.5
20261.10.571.5
20271.10.581.5
20281.10.601.6
20291.10.611.6

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ouachita Nf1020241991
Blanco619681968
Hee Mountain620241999
Pushmataha220231994
Bethel220241993
Big Cedar120241967
Phillips119981970
Heyburn119981994
Mt. Herman120221998
Baron119841973
Peoria119781967
Welch120092009
Douglas120042004
Colcord120152006

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.