BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Maryland has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Maryland. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Maryland is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 6.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 5.5–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Maryland is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 6.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 5.5–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.85.38.4
20266.95.48.4
20276.95.48.5
20287.05.48.5
20297.05.58.6

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oldtown3620241970
Green Ridge3220241995
Piney Grove3020241995
Finzel1520241995
Smithsburg1420141967
Potomac Park1220241970
Olney1220241966
Jennings1220241995
Mt Nebo1119911969
Eklo1120181966
Madonna1120222009
Sinepuxent1019781966
Vindex920241966
Davidsnville920241982
Pomfret820241966
Accident820171992
Earlton820242014
Island Creek820241991
Cheltenham720041966
Forest Grove720232011
Floyd620241966
Wolfsville620241966
Steyer620241996
Nottingham620242005
Broomes Isl519961966

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.