BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Delaware

All statesForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Delaware has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scarlet Tanager Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Delaware. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Delaware is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Delaware is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.003.6
20271.60.003.6
20281.60.003.6
20291.60.003.6
20301.60.003.5

Scarlet Tanager Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilmington420061970
Frederica320251966
Dover319871966
Holleyville320041966
Blackbird320251994
Pepperbox320061998
Mt Pleasant220091966
Bethany Bch219671967
Georgetown220211992
Harrington120231966
Frankford120121966
Lowes Xrds119911966
Milton120161966
Millsboro120212019
Holleyville 2120192007
Milton 2120252017
Pepperbox 2120252017

Scarlet Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.