Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Scarlet Tanager In Prairie Potholes
Scarlet Tanager in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1973.
-65%Since 1973
22Routes In Region
39Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Scarlet Tanager has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1973.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2029
0.01Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.0495% range
±30.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| 2026 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| 2027 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| 2028 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| 2029 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Routes In Prairie Potholes
| Wylie | MINNESOTA | 2 | 1980 |
| Panther | IOWA | 1 | 2001 |
| Washington | IOWA | 1 | 2021 |
| Clare | IOWA | 1 | 2000 |
| Hartland | MINNESOTA | 1 | 1997 |
| Chandler | MINNESOTA | 1 | 2018 |
| Courtland | MINNESOTA | 1 | 2021 |
| Redwood Fall | MINNESOTA | 1 | 2016 |
| Gluek | MINNESOTA | 1 | 1989 |
| Tenney | MINNESOTA | 1 | 2004 |
| Oklee | MINNESOTA | 1 | 2004 |
| Beltrami | MINNESOTA | 1 | 2001 |
| Erie | MINNESOTA | 1 | 2007 |
| Grygla | MINNESOTA | 1 | 2016 |
| Lake Bronson | MINNESOTA | 1 | 1998 |
| Franklin | MINNESOTA | 1 | 2024 |
| Lockhart | MINNESOTA | 1 | 1999 |
| Midway | NEBRASKA | 1 | 2023 |
| Ponca | NEBRASKA | 1 | 2019 |
| Cooperstown | NORTH-DAKOTA | 1 | 1973 |
| Bowesmont | NORTH-DAKOTA | 1 | 1996 |
| Rolla | NORTH-DAKOTA | 1 | 2008 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.