BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-65%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Scarlet Tanager In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.04
20260.010.000.04
20270.010.000.04
20280.010.000.04
20290.010.000.04

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WylieMINNESOTA21980
PantherIOWA12001
WashingtonIOWA12021
ClareIOWA12000
HartlandMINNESOTA11997
ChandlerMINNESOTA12018
CourtlandMINNESOTA12021
Redwood FallMINNESOTA12016
GluekMINNESOTA11989
TenneyMINNESOTA12004
OkleeMINNESOTA12004
BeltramiMINNESOTA12001
ErieMINNESOTA12007
GryglaMINNESOTA12016
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA11998
FranklinMINNESOTA12024
LockhartMINNESOTA11999
MidwayNEBRASKA12023
PoncaNEBRASKA12019
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA11973
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA11996
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.