BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.6–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.6–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.73.4
20272.51.73.3
20282.51.63.3
20292.51.63.3
20302.41.63.3

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND252018
PulaskiRHODE-ISLAND181992
WarrenCONNECTICUT142011
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT132025
SinepuxentMARYLAND101978
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND102025
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS102022
JessupMARYLAND92025
Island CreekMARYLAND92025
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT82025
PomfretMARYLAND82024
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND82025
QuinbyVIRGINIA82018
Warren 2CONNECTICUT72025
CheltenhamMARYLAND72004
Forest GroveMARYLAND72023
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE71998
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND72025
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT62025
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS62017
Port RoyalVIRGINIA62025
TruhartVIRGINIA62024
WillimanticCONNECTICUT52018
DanburyCONNECTICUT52022
GranbyCONNECTICUT52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.