BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.7–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.7–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.73.4
20262.61.73.4
20272.51.73.4
20282.51.73.3
20292.51.73.3

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND252018
PulaskiRHODE-ISLAND181992
WarrenCONNECTICUT142011
GranbyCONNECTICUT122024
SinepuxentMARYLAND101978
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS102022
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT92024
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND92024
PomfretMARYLAND82024
Island CreekMARYLAND82024
QuinbyVIRGINIA82018
CheltenhamMARYLAND72004
Forest GroveMARYLAND72023
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE71998
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE72024
Milton 2DELAWARE62017
NottinghamMARYLAND62024
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS62017
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND62024
TruhartVIRGINIA62024
WillimanticCONNECTICUT52018
DanburyCONNECTICUT52022
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT52024
Warren 2CONNECTICUT52024
BlackbirdDELAWARE52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.