BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+11%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.86–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.86–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.86–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.842.5
20261.70.852.5
20271.70.852.5
20281.70.862.5
20291.70.862.5

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HatfieldWISCONSIN141998
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN122012
Big RapidsMICHIGAN101990
Stevens PtWISCONSIN92023
MatherWISCONSIN72018
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN62019
ScottvilleMICHIGAN52024
FowlervilleMICHIGAN52008
CascoWISCONSIN52022
GreshamWISCONSIN52024
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN42024
AlmenaMICHIGAN42015
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN42019
AshbyMINNESOTA42021
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA42024
CadottWISCONSIN42024
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN42022
SaxevilleWISCONSIN42024
PackertownINDIANA32004
BravoMICHIGAN32023
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN32024
HungerfordMICHIGAN32024
New BuffaloMICHIGAN32013
EvergreenMINNESOTA32024
Brook ParkMINNESOTA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.