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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+237%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scarlet Tanager In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 189% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.92–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+189%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 189% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.92–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.832.0
20271.40.852.0
20281.50.882.0
20291.50.902.1
20301.50.922.1

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WaldronARKANSAS122025
BlancoOKLAHOMA61968
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA62025
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA62024
SimsARKANSAS32025
CrowsARKANSAS21986
BlakelyARKANSAS21995
Dry Fork 2ARKANSAS22025
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA22023
Old MiloARKANSAS12002
RamseyARKANSAS11977
Locust BayouARKANSAS12000
PoyenARKANSAS11986
HollywoodARKANSAS12003
StarkARKANSAS12001
Coal HillARKANSAS11999
MassardARKANSAS11997
HavanaARKANSAS12021
NanceARKANSAS11999
Dry ForkARKANSAS12023
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS12025
Princeton 2ARKANSAS12022
Magazine MtnARKANSAS12025
Big CedarOKLAHOMA12024
PhillipsOKLAHOMA11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.