BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+270%Since 1969
26Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Scarlet Tanager has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 68% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2029
1.6Projected 2029 index
1.0–2.195% range
±56.2%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.50.932.0
20261.50.952.0
20271.50.972.0
20281.50.992.1
20291.61.02.1

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Magazine MtnARKANSAS212021
WaldronARKANSAS192024
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA102024
BlancoOKLAHOMA61968
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA62024
SimsARKANSAS52024
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS42024
CrowsARKANSAS21986
BlakelyARKANSAS21995
BethelOKLAHOMA22024
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA22023
Old MiloARKANSAS12002
RamseyARKANSAS11977
Locust BayouARKANSAS12000
PoyenARKANSAS11986
HollywoodARKANSAS12003
StarkARKANSAS12001
Coal HillARKANSAS11999
MassardARKANSAS11997
HavanaARKANSAS12021
NanceARKANSAS11999
Dry ForkARKANSAS12023
Princeton 2ARKANSAS12022
Big CedarOKLAHOMA12024
PhillipsOKLAHOMA11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.