BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.43.1
20272.21.43.1
20282.21.43.1
20292.21.43.1
20302.21.43.1

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
W ShokanNEW-YORK142019
BranchportNEW-YORK92024
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA92025
North EastonNEW-YORK82025
ShaftsburyVERMONT82025
N WilmurtNEW-YORK71998
TrumansburgNEW-YORK52024
Canadice LNEW-YORK52025
SalemNEW-YORK52025
NaplesNEW-YORK52025
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK52025
NashvilleNEW-YORK42018
GarrettsvileOHIO41991
Slippery RkPENNSYLVANIA41990
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA42025
HighlandNEW-YORK32022
OrleansNEW-YORK32025
WatertownNEW-YORK32011
OgdensburgNEW-YORK32025
ParishvilleNEW-YORK32025
PeruOHIO31975
MiddlefieldOHIO32016
LenoxOHIO32025
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA31976
North PownalVERMONT32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.