BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968
84Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029
2.2Projected 2029 index
1.4–3.195% range
±36.2%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.31.43.1
20262.31.43.1
20272.31.43.1
20282.21.43.1
20292.21.43.1

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
W ShokanNEW-YORK142019
BranchportNEW-YORK92024
ShaftsburyVERMONT82024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK71998
LucerneOHIO62024
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA62023
TrumansburgNEW-YORK52024
NashvilleNEW-YORK42018
SalemNEW-YORK42024
North EastonNEW-YORK42024
GarrettsvileOHIO41991
HiramOHIO42019
Slippery RkPENNSYLVANIA41990
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA42024
HighlandNEW-YORK32022
Canadice LNEW-YORK32022
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK32024
WatertownNEW-YORK32011
OgdensburgNEW-YORK32024
ParishvilleNEW-YORK32024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK32024
PeruOHIO31975
MiddlefieldOHIO32016
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA32024
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA31976

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.