BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+121%Since 1968
151Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.0–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2029
3.2Projected 2029 index
2.0–4.495% range
±70.4%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.11.94.3
20263.11.94.3
20273.11.94.3
20283.22.04.4
20293.22.04.4

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Central Hardwoods.
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY252014
HoosierINDIANA242024
Trace LewisTENNESSEE222017
CentervilleMISSOURI172024
GeorgiaINDIANA122024
BennettMISSOURI112024
Mammoth Cave NorthKENTUCKY102013
RomeOHIO102024
LurtonARKANSAS92023
Boston Mtn.ARKANSAS92024
Levee 2KENTUCKY92019
Trace CollinwoodTENNESSEE92018
HudsonKENTUCKY82019
BrownsvilleKENTUCKY82024
MarshallARKANSAS72021
DemunbrunsKENTUCKY72021
WilliamsvillMISSOURI72024
Pond CreekTENNESSEE72024
ComptonARKANSAS62022
AkersMISSOURI62024
ClementineMISSOURI61996
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE62017
RudyARKANSAS52024
LeveeKENTUCKY51982
CascadeMISSOURI52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.