BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+123%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.9–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.9–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.84.2
20273.11.84.3
20283.11.94.3
20293.11.94.3
20303.21.94.4

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY252014
CentervilleMISSOURI242025
Trace LewisTENNESSEE222017
HoosierINDIANA162025
BennettMISSOURI132025
RomeOHIO132025
Boston Mtn.ARKANSAS112025
GeorgiaINDIANA112025
Mammoth Cave NorthKENTUCKY102013
LurtonARKANSAS92023
Levee 2KENTUCKY92019
Trace CollinwoodTENNESSEE92018
BrownsvilleKENTUCKY82024
AkersMISSOURI82025
WilliamsvillMISSOURI82025
MarshallARKANSAS72021
Ozark NfARKANSAS72025
DemunbrunsKENTUCKY72021
ComptonARKANSAS62022
ClementineMISSOURI61996
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE62017
DelwoodILLINOIS52025
Indian SpgsINDIANA52025
LeveeKENTUCKY51982
IrontonMISSOURI51980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.