BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+91%Since 1968
402Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.7 (95% range 7.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029
9.7Projected 2029 index
7.3–1295% range
±35.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20259.47.012
20269.47.112
20279.57.112
20289.67.212
20299.77.312

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Appalachian Mountains.
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA512024
OldtownMARYLAND362024
Green RidgeMARYLAND322024
Tar HollowOHIO322024
Piney GroveMARYLAND302024
GlenwoodVIRGINIA292023
MeccaTENNESSEE262023
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA261990
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY242018
Bald KnobVIRGINIA242024
Shenandoa NpVIRGINIA242024
Front RoyalVIRGINIA232024
DresdenOHIO202024
DuboistownPENNSYLVANIA202024
JeromeVIRGINIA192023
Scioto TrailOHIO182013
Shawnee S.F. 2OHIO182019
RydePENNSYLVANIA182005
Mill RunPENNSYLVANIA182024
CovingtonVIRGINIA182024
Mountain Lk.VIRGINIA182018
SigelPENNSYLVANIA172024
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA172024
Gr North MtnVIRGINIA172024
Loft MtnVIRGINIA172023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.