BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
402Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.7 (95% range 7.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.7 (95% range 7.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.47.012
20269.47.112
20279.57.112
20289.67.212
20299.77.312

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA512024
OldtownMARYLAND362024
Green RidgeMARYLAND322024
Tar HollowOHIO322024
Piney GroveMARYLAND302024
GlenwoodVIRGINIA292023
MeccaTENNESSEE262023
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA261990
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY242018
Bald KnobVIRGINIA242024
Shenandoa NpVIRGINIA242024
Front RoyalVIRGINIA232024
DresdenOHIO202024
DuboistownPENNSYLVANIA202024
JeromeVIRGINIA192023
Scioto TrailOHIO182013
Shawnee S.F. 2OHIO182019
RydePENNSYLVANIA182005
Mill RunPENNSYLVANIA182024
CovingtonVIRGINIA182024
Mountain Lk.VIRGINIA182018
SigelPENNSYLVANIA172024
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA172024
Gr North MtnVIRGINIA172024
Loft MtnVIRGINIA172023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.