BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+95%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
403Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.6 (95% range 7.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.1–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.6 (95% range 7.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.36.912
20279.36.912
20289.47.012
20299.57.112
20309.67.112

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA492025
OldtownMARYLAND322025
Tar HollowOHIO322024
FinzelMARYLAND312025
Shenandoa NpVIRGINIA312025
Green RidgeMARYLAND292025
GlenwoodVIRGINIA292023
MeccaTENNESSEE262023
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA261990
ShanghaiWEST-VIRGINIA262025
Piney GroveMARYLAND252025
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY242018
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA232025
New MarketVIRGINIA222025
JenningsMARYLAND212025
Laurel HillPENNSYLVANIA212025
StonecreekOHIO202025
DuboistownPENNSYLVANIA202024
Bald KnobVIRGINIA192025
Wayne N.F.OHIO182025
Scioto TrailOHIO182013
Shawnee S.F. 2OHIO182019
N Pine GrovePENNSYLVANIA182025
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA182025
RydePENNSYLVANIA182005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.