BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Piedmont has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
150Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Piedmont is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Piedmont is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.81.22.4
20271.81.22.5
20281.81.22.5
20291.81.22.5
20301.81.22.5

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pw Forest PkVIRGINIA242009
BullockNORTH-CAROLINA142025
OlneyMARYLAND122024
SiloamGEORGIA111978
EkloMARYLAND112018
MadonnaMARYLAND112022
IjamsvilleMARYLAND92025
Lake AnnaVIRGINIA92025
EarltonMARYLAND82024
EdenNORTH-CAROLINA82022
Ft Pickett NVIRGINIA81995
Ft Pickett SVIRGINIA81995
MooresvilleNORTH-CAROLINA72001
ElamsvilleVIRGINIA72016
Liberty City 2ALABAMA62024
ClimaxNORTH-CAROLINA62008
SawmillNORTH-CAROLINA62025
DavidVIRGINIA62013
Brandy StationVIRGINIA62025
Mount AiryNORTH-CAROLINA52025
TrymeVIRGINIA52025
AmherstVIRGINIA52025
HallVIRGINIA52025
IrisburgVIRGINIA52025
AppomattoxVIRGINIA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.