BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 104% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+104%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 104% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.030.21
20270.120.030.21
20280.120.030.21
20290.120.030.21
20300.120.040.21

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WaverlyVIRGINIA71987
Rock ChapelALABAMA31997
CorinthMISSISSIPPI31996
Trace LeeMISSISSIPPI32018
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA32022
Cypress CrNORTH-CAROLINA32004
Big SandyTENNESSEE32025
WhitehouseALABAMA22024
HoltALABAMA22025
PhilemaGEORGIA22018
ShilohKENTUCKY22025
TupeloMISSISSIPPI22013
EmbryMISSISSIPPI22025
Scooba 2MISSISSIPPI21986
Trace ChickasawMISSISSIPPI22024
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA22025
HamletNORTH-CAROLINA22000
GenoaNORTH-CAROLINA21992
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA22025
WashingtonNORTH-CAROLINA22025
MoscowTENNESSEE22022
MansfieldTENNESSEE22025
SurryVIRGINIA22025
St FlorianALABAMA12017
HowardALABAMA11978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.