BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+86%Since 1968
73Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.03–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029
0.12Projected 2029 index
0.03–0.2195% range
±89.6%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.120.030.21
20260.120.030.21
20270.120.030.21
20280.120.030.21
20290.120.030.21

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Big SandyTENNESSEE102024
WaverlyVIRGINIA71987
MansfieldTENNESSEE52024
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA42024
HoltALABAMA32022
Rock ChapelALABAMA31997
CorinthMISSISSIPPI31996
Trace LeeMISSISSIPPI32018
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA32022
Cypress CrNORTH-CAROLINA32004
SurryVIRGINIA32024
WhitehouseALABAMA22024
PhilemaGEORGIA22018
TupeloMISSISSIPPI22013
Scooba 2MISSISSIPPI21986
Trace ChickasawMISSISSIPPI22024
HamletNORTH-CAROLINA22000
GenoaNORTH-CAROLINA21992
MoscowTENNESSEE22022
St FlorianALABAMA12017
HowardALABAMA11978
BillingsleyALABAMA12012
Alabama PtALABAMA11985
BloctonALABAMA12013
VinaALABAMA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.