BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.03–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.03–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.030.21
20260.120.030.21
20270.120.030.21
20280.120.030.21
20290.120.030.21

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big SandyTENNESSEE102024
WaverlyVIRGINIA71987
MansfieldTENNESSEE52024
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA42024
HoltALABAMA32022
Rock ChapelALABAMA31997
CorinthMISSISSIPPI31996
Trace LeeMISSISSIPPI32018
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA32022
Cypress CrNORTH-CAROLINA32004
SurryVIRGINIA32024
WhitehouseALABAMA22024
PhilemaGEORGIA22018
TupeloMISSISSIPPI22013
Scooba 2MISSISSIPPI21986
Trace ChickasawMISSISSIPPI22024
HamletNORTH-CAROLINA22000
GenoaNORTH-CAROLINA21992
MoscowTENNESSEE22022
St FlorianALABAMA12017
HowardALABAMA11978
BillingsleyALABAMA12012
Alabama PtALABAMA11985
BloctonALABAMA12013
VinaALABAMA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.