BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
196Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has risen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.15–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.15–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.140.34
20260.240.150.34
20270.240.150.34
20280.250.150.34
20290.250.150.35

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarveysburgOHIO41995
BarringtonILLINOIS31995
WallaceINDIANA32024
Witts StationINDIANA32024
HuntsvilleMISSOURI32024
New PointMISSOURI32007
River FallsWISCONSIN32016
PutnamILLINOIS22004
DaileyILLINOIS22021
MelroseILLINOIS21995
PawneeILLINOIS22018
JanesvilleILLINOIS22023
MiddletownINDIANA22002
FriendswoodINDIANA22024
OlatheKANSAS22007
FrontenacMINNESOTA22023
FilleyMISSOURI21982
KahokaMISSOURI21986
SticklervillMISSOURI22016
TarkioMISSOURI21979
GildehouseMISSOURI21985
UnionMISSOURI21999
BloomvilleOHIO22024
FultonOHIO22023
WilmingtonOHIO21989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.