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Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
198Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scarlet Tanager has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Scarlet Tanager In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.25 (95% range 0.16–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.25 (95% range 0.16–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.150.34
20270.240.150.34
20280.250.150.34
20290.250.150.34
20300.250.160.35

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marion 2OHIO52025
MoselleMISSOURI42025
HarveysburgOHIO41995
BarringtonILLINOIS31995
BrookvilleINDIANA32025
WallaceINDIANA32024
HuntsvilleMISSOURI32024
New PointMISSOURI32007
PutnamILLINOIS22004
MelroseILLINOIS21995
PawneeILLINOIS22018
JanesvilleILLINOIS22023
AthensILLINOIS22025
MiddletownINDIANA22002
FriendswoodINDIANA22024
ShelbyvilleINDIANA22025
Portage 2INDIANA22025
Witts StationINDIANA22025
OlatheKANSAS22007
FrontenacMINNESOTA22023
FilleyMISSOURI21982
KahokaMISSOURI21986
SticklervillMISSOURI22016
TarkioMISSOURI21979
GildehouseMISSOURI21985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.