BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-27%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.72–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.72–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.72–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.812.6
20271.70.792.5
20281.60.772.5
20291.60.742.5
20301.60.722.5

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Union TwpWISCONSIN262025
BashawWISCONSIN172025
HarriettaMICHIGAN92025
Popple RiverWISCONSIN92025
Bear LakeMICHIGAN82025
Sand LakeMICHIGAN72025
HermanMICHIGAN52022
CunardMICHIGAN52021
Brush CreekMICHIGAN52016
Cedar RunMICHIGAN51999
SidnawMICHIGAN52025
Scott'S MarshMICHIGAN52010
Land O LakesWISCONSIN52013
MellenWISCONSIN52025
ConoverWISCONSIN52025
CavourWISCONSIN52024
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN41997
IronsMICHIGAN41989
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN42011
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN42024
BemidjiMINNESOTA41980
Cass LakeMINNESOTA42016
HollisterWISCONSIN42025
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN32025
CreightonMICHIGAN32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.