BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scarlet Tanager In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Scarlet Tanager in Atlantic Northern Forest has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
152Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.15–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.15–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.342.9
20271.60.302.8
20281.50.252.8
20291.50.202.8
20301.40.152.7

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS202025
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS122025
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS112025
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE102025
NorthfieldMAINE81981
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS82016
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS82022
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE82025
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE82025
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE82025
New HartfordCONNECTICUT61987
CambridgeMAINE62008
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE62025
DegrasseNEW-YORK62025
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK62017
W RutlandVERMONT62025
WatervilleVERMONT61980
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS52014
Tupper LakeNEW-YORK51976
MarlboroVERMONT52025
GaysvilleVERMONT52025
BenedictaMAINE41980
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE41992
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS42025
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS41994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.