BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scarlet Tanager In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Scarlet Tanager in Atlantic Northern Forest has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
152Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scarlet Tanager in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Scarlet Tanager In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.14–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scarlet Tanager in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.14–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.342.9
20261.60.292.8
20271.50.242.8
20281.50.192.7
20291.40.142.7

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Scarlet Tanager in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS122024
MarlboroVERMONT122024
NorthfieldMAINE81981
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS82024
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS82016
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS82022
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE72024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE72024
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE72024
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE72024
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE72024
New HartfordCONNECTICUT61987
CambridgeMAINE62008
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK62017
WatervilleVERMONT61980
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS52014
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS52024
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE52024
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE52024
North RiverNEW-YORK52007
Tupper LakeNEW-YORK51976
StrattonVERMONT52024
BenedictaMAINE41980
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE41992
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS41994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.