BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-tailed Grouse

PhasianidaeGame birdsTympanuchus phasianellus

Sharp-tailed Grouse has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
222RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Sharp-tailed Grouse

The Sharp-tailed Grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus) is a North American member of the Pheasants, Grouse & Turkeys (Phasianidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the game birds.

Size
12–47 in long (30–120 cm) — a ground-dwelling game bird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Fields, brushland, prairie and the forest floor, where it forages and nests on the ground.
Diet
Seeds, grain, buds, leaves and insects gathered on the ground.
Range
Recorded on 222 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 13 states, most concentrated in the Badlands and Prairies.
Family
Phasianidae · Game birds

Notable Sharp-tailed Grouse TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-tailed Grouse has risen sharply in surveyed states: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.03–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.03–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.030.12
20260.070.030.12
20270.070.030.12
20280.070.030.12
20290.070.030.12

Where the Sharp-tailed Grouse Is Detected

BBS routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse, sized by most recent count.

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend by State

Sharp-tailed Grouse population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaskainsufficient datan/a5
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a1
Idaho-90%19904
Michiganinsufficient datan/a2
Minnesota+124%197816
Montana+13%197057
Nebraska-58%196924
North Dakota+12%196945
South Dakota+248%197041
Utahinsufficient datan/a2
Washingtoninsufficient datan/a1
Wisconsin-29%19727
Wyoming+56%198417

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Sharp-tailed Grouse population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin-83%19895
Northern Rockies-63%19759
Prairie Potholes+106%196966
Boreal Hardwood Transition+999%197217
Badlands and Prairies+27%197093
Shortgrass Prairie-42%198310
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-35%196915

Sharp-tailed Grouse Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 63% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.