BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Sharp-tailed Grouse in Badlands and Prairies has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+27%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sharp-tailed Grouse in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 61% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.940.001.9
20260.940.001.9
20270.940.001.9
20280.940.001.9
20290.940.001.9

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA282024
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA202024
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA152024
WebsterMONTANA132024
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA112024
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA92024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA92024
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA82021
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA81990
ShawmutMONTANA72024
PowdervilleMONTANA72024
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA72016
LocateMONTANA62024
LindsayMONTANA62023
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA62024
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA51982
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA52018
Seely 2WYOMING52016
HighwoodMONTANA42024
RoyMONTANA42024
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA42018
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA42012
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA42014
RavenWYOMING42024
SavageMONTANA32021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.