BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGame birds

Sharp-tailed Grouse in Badlands and Prairies has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+69%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-tailed Grouse has risen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sharp-tailed Grouse In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.03–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.03–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.022.1
20271.10.022.1
20281.10.022.1
20291.10.032.1
20301.10.032.1

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA512025
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA282024
ShawmutMONTANA222025
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA182025
WebsterMONTANA162025
WinnettMONTANA122025
RavenWYOMING122025
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA112024
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA92025
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA81990
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA82025
PowdervilleMONTANA72024
LindsayMONTANA62023
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA62024
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA62025
RoundupMONTANA52025
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA51982
Seely 2WYOMING52016
HighwoodMONTANA42024
RoyMONTANA42024
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA42018
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA42012
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA42025
Moskee 3WYOMING42025
SavageMONTANA32021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.