BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Sharp-tailed Grouse in Minnesota has surged: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+124%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-tailed Grouse Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-tailed Grouse has surged in Minnesota: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Minnesota is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±142.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Minnesota is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.000.77
20260.350.000.77
20270.360.000.78
20280.360.000.78
20290.370.000.79

Sharp-tailed Grouse Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greenbush2620241996
Lude1020232004
Erie920151978
Warroad720241993
Badger520171979
Grygla320171976
Big Stone220072007
Oklee220211983
Nett Lake220242013
Floodwood120172017
Mcgregor120152001
Debs119811981
Wylie120112006
Little Fork120231991
Waskish120231978
Lake Bronson120111979

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoidahomichiganmontananebraskanorth-dakotasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.