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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGame birds

Sharp-tailed Grouse in Minnesota has surged: up 221% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+221%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-tailed Grouse Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-tailed Grouse has surged in Minnesota: up 221% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Minnesota is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.53 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in Minnesota is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.53 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.370.000.79
20270.370.000.79
20280.380.000.80
20290.380.000.80
20300.390.000.81

Sharp-tailed Grouse Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warroad1220251993
Greenbush1220251996
Erie920151978
Badger520171979
Lude320252004
Grygla320171976
Mcgregor220252001
Big Stone220072007
Oklee220211983
Nett Lake220242013
Floodwood120172017
Debs119811981
Wylie120112006
Little Fork120231991
Waskish120231978
Lake Bronson120111979

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoidahomichiganmontananebraskanorth-dakotasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.