BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Sharp-tailed Grouse in South Dakota has surged: up 248% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+248%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sharp-tailed Grouse Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sharp-tailed Grouse has surged in South Dakota: up 248% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in South Dakota is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sharp-tailed Grouse in South Dakota is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.62 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.590.001.3
20260.600.001.3
20270.610.001.3
20280.610.001.3
20290.620.001.3

Sharp-tailed Grouse Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Sharp-tailed Grouse in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reva2020241988
S. Pioneer1120241994
Laplant819901990
Cottonwood720161998
Owanka420121968
Harding420141970
Volunteer320131968
Cedar Pass320231970
Maurine320241975
Lodgepole320241998
Eagle Butte320122001
Marcus320122002
Lacreek320192010
Railroad Butte220221996
Ft Thompson219941993
Forbes220152015
Pioneer120241994
Chamberlain119901973
Winner120231988
Rosebud120091968
Rockyford119721972
Raymond120112011
Indian120241998
Crow Creek120172000
French Creek120022002

Sharp-tailed Grouse Population Trend in Other States

alaskacoloradoidahomichiganminnesotamontananebraskanorth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.